The acquisition of fantasy eSports startup AlphaDraft by FanDuel came as a relative surprise given rival DraftKings announcement of entrance into the eSports space. While the two moves have brought spotlight on the daily fantasy eSports (DFeS) market and intensified competition between the two firms; success in fantasy eSports will not be governed by the exact same rules as for traditional sports. Instead both companies will thrive or wilt according to how well they navigate the unique fantasy eSports picture.

Fan Communities: Parallel but Not Identical

Contrary to popular belief, the fan communities for eSports and traditional sports are not symmetric. Fans in traditional sports have long embraced their role as spectators. Finding ways to keep sports fans continuously engaged has become a key challenge across the marketplace; with daily fantasy sports (DFS) having evolved into a solution. In fact, fantasy is now a key driver for consumption of sports. According to research conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA),

Fantasy players are more interested in sports because of fantasy, with 61% reporting they are watching more live sports because of fantasy and 60% saying they read more about sports because of fantasy

eSports represents an entirely different reality. Today, the majority of eSports spectators play the games themselves. Meaning most fans are highly knowledgeable about the complexities of gameplay. As a result, there is a smaller spectrum of fan knowledge. In traditional sports, fans can easily range from complete novices to expert level and everything in between. eSports features far less casual viewers, and those tend to become enthusiasts quite fast. However, as the viewing experience(s) for eSports matures, expect this to change somewhat. This complexion affects the entire nature of daily fantasy eSports (DFeS). More highly engaged, highly informed fantasy players raise the bar of acceptance for everything from content to integration with the eSport itself.

Games vs. Sport

A video game, by itself, is not sport. It is a piece of software, whose play at a high-level has warranted consideration as sport. The same holds for an item like a basketball. The ball itself is not a sport, but its use (play) is one. The critical difference is that there is a minute delta of change involved with a traditional sport, year over year. Video games, on the other hand, are far more volatile. The software that today’s eSports are built atop will not have the same longevity that the design of a basketball has and will continue to have. Regardless of the success of today’s top eSport titles, fantasy offerings cannot assume the games of today will have the same place over the long term.

Over the short term, eSports are also subject to incremental changes in the form of patches. These updates, released by game developers, can change the complexion of key pieces of a competitive landscape. This variable should not be underestimated, as there is absolutely no parallel for it in the traditional sports world. Player performance is not just a factor of human and team inputs but also of performance against the current patch of a game title.

eSports Analytics: Under Construction

The emergence of analytics in traditional sports has paralleled the rise of its fantasy segment. As the practice of quantifying performance in traditional sports evolved from its basic origins of simple statistics, the notion of complex strategy in fantasy has also taken flight. Early on, fantasy sports were mostly about assembling a roster of the best performing players based on, oftentimes, subjective judgments or hunches. Today data science is being applied to sports to produce, among other things, predictive analytics mathematically derived from actual stats for players and teams. eSports hasn’t had sufficient time to reproduce the same.

Firms like eSportsFanz – the first company to create analytics for eSports fantasy– just announced the beta of its new fantasy eSports platform in May 2015. Expect progression to occur at an accelerated rate, but in the meantime fantasy eSports will have to go without widely available analytics. The nascent backdrop for analytics is compounded by a still budding world of data collection for professional eSports. Unlike traditional sports, where pro leagues spearhead data and statistic collection, this is done by a number of independent outlets. For example, Unikrn, an eSports gambling company, recently purchased DotaProHub, to alleviate the dearth of comprehensive eSports statistics.

Organized Chaos

Today’s eSports leagues resemble circuits more than the centrally organized versions present in traditional sports. This is an issue of note for fantasy eSports providers because the model of engaging individual leagues and their teams, as a channel for capturing a user base, will not scale in the eSports world. Plus, there is a far higher degree of year-over-year variability in everything from league structure to competitive dynamics. Specifically, major sport leagues feature a number of characteristics that are entirely missing from eSports, including:

• Regulation and oversight: Outside of drug testing and the ban of betting companies from sponsorship, this is essentially a barren landscape.
• Centralized organization: eSports leagues are open-ended, in that teams can come and go into existence outside of strict, centralized authorization. Even in the most centrally managed eSport league, League of Legends, spots in the league play can be sold and team ownership can be changed, etc. with minor interference from centralized authority.
• Reliable scheduling: Scheduling plays a crucial role in the health of traditional pro sports leagues. Guaranteed match-ups between and across divisions lay the groundwork for quality programming and broadcasts, which drive ad buys for fantasy providers in traditional sports. This structure is not present in eSports today.

The noticeable element of chaos, present in eSports today, must be managed in order to succeed. Fantasy eSports providers will be forced to innovate, instead of create carbon copies of traditional sport offerings, until more organized infrastructure is present. This will place a premium on agility, alignment with the eSports fan community and forward-thinking business perspectives.

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Alex Fletcher is founder & president at eSports Group, where he helps customers meet their eSports advisory & consulting needs. When Alex isn’t glued to a screen, he spends time with his wife, their two dogs, and pretends to learn Polish. Feel free to stalk him on Twitter – @FletchUnleashed